The system is currently moving west-northwest at 23 MPH, and has maximum sustained winds of 45 MPH. Anywhere.

Anywhere.

In terms of storm path, the models and NHC track and cone are in general agreement. Individually they are full descriptions of the evolution of the weather. Tropical systems always weaken when moving over land, but especially mountainous areas.Several other unfavorable factors such as high wind shear ahead of the system, as well as dry air wrapping into the southern flank of the storm look to keep any potential strengthening after Isaias leaves Hispaniola to a minimum.

A compact central dense overcast is present, with explosive new storms near the center.The Ocean Heat Content (OHC) map indicates that conditions across the Bahamas are very conducive for additional strengthening.

With weather remaining calm locally, we turn our attention to Tropical Storm Isaias, which is currently centered 350 miles southeast of Puerto Rico as of 5:00 AM Wednesday. Model guidance remains in good agreement that Isaias will reach the island of Hispaniola later this afternoon, making landfall near the city of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic. Tropics. This usually means very supportive of explosive storm activity in the tropical systems. The 06Z UKMET and and GFS have shifted westward, closer to the Florida coast, which is similar to the westward shift seen in the 00Z ECMWF model fields. However, 50 miles to the … Global models are hinting many solutions – it may impact on Caribbean, Hispaniola, the Bahamas of even the Gulf, and Florida.

Potentially into the Gulf of Mexico and the United States in early August.As we can see in the simulated wind field by the HWRF model for Friday, July 31st, the system would become a hurricane Isaias while tracking north of Hispaniola towards the Bahamas.

For this reason, given the current setup with a trough in the Eastern U.S., confidence is increasing in a track near or just east of Florida – a scenario which largely keeps the worst impacts offshore. Experiencing tornado-warned supercells and major snowstorms in Eastern PA furthered his interest. Their forecast, which is most important and the one we should be most closely monitoring, has Isaias as a strong 65 MPH topical storm, with gusts up to 75 MPH around the time of landfall Sunday morning near the Florida Keys. The system would move across the northern Caribbean towards Hispaniola and Cuba. ECMWF (EURO) Model Guidance/ Analysis FSU Tropical Model Outputs FSU Tropical Cyclone Genesis Penn State Tropical E-Wall NOAA HFIP Ruc Models Navy NRL TC Page College of DuPage Model Guidance WXCharts Model Guidance NOAA NHC Analysis Tools NOAA NHC ATCF Directory NOAA NCEP/EMC Cyclogenesis Tracking NOAA NCEP/EMC HWRF Model NOAA HFIP Model Products …

Isaias should easily maintain its hurricane strength!Isaias will move across the Bahamas today and tonight. Model guidance generally agrees Isaias will be a 55-60 MPH tropical storm around landfall in Florida (assuming it makes landfall in the FL Keys).Major models such as the European model (ECMWF) and the American model (GFS) both keep the system extremely weak. This is the first hurricane season in recorded history that nine tropical storms have formed before Aug. 1.

July 29, 2020 at 11:00 pm EDT By Kirk Mellish.

While models are in agreement on development, they differ on intensity. Tropical storms Arthur and Bertha developed in May, marking the sixth consecutive year with pre-season systems. Isolated minor river flooding is possible in the Carolinas early next week.Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the Bahamas today and Saturday, and Hurricane Warnings are in effect for these areas. These conditions should normally boost the intensity of a tropical system, so we can expect Isaias to form over the next few days. This system is expected to begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles by mid-week.Attached are the water vapor and visible satellite images across Western Atlantic.

If this storm develops, it will be one to watch for Florida and much of the East Coast.While numerous computer models, including the GFS, show this potential tracking near Florida and along the East Coast next week, our often more reliable European (ECMWF) model actually struggles to show significant development and even shows this tropical wave drifting through the Caribbean until it dissipates.Are we going to run out of names this year? Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly conducive for further development of this system.The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving it a 90 % chance to become a Tropical Storm Isaias later this week. As a result, Isaias is forecast to regain hurricane status tonight, as shown by the HWRF and …