advantage and stay undefeated against a Kansas State team they eked past in October?After The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) have clinched a playoff berth. Team Strength The first thing the tool does is calculate the strength for each team that will determine which team wins a match between any given pair. 1 seed in the East for the majority of the season, have Robert Williams III back from knee surgery and possess the second-easiest remaining schedule of any team currently in the Eastern Conference playoff picture (Cleveland Cavaliers has the easiest). Assistant coach Damione Lewis talkes to Poona Ford and Shelby Harris on the sidelines. Explore them all. Per the simulator, the Seahawks fate remains in their own hands, with winning being the best determining factor for Seattle. How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett hauls in a touchdown pass from Geno Smith. The Saints Orleans is projected for a 43% chance. By Josh Katz,Kevin Quealy and Rumsey TaylorUpdated Jan. 8, 2023. Nine weeks have been completed this season, with nine more to go. regular season could end. Go behind the scenes with team photographer Rod Mar as he shares moments from Week 12 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders on November 27, 2022 at Lumen Field. Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III dives into the end zone for Seattle's first touchdown. What separates Denver from our projected No. Bold predictions for 2023 NFL combine. Awards Picks. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The table below represents the Cardinals remaining games. For starters, three brand-new teams have entered the playoff projections, and there's been a good deal of movement for the ones who remain in the postseason picture. The tables below represent every N.F.L. But after an 8-9 finish in 2021, Cleveland is moving on from Baker Mayfield as it reportedly wanted an "adult" at quarterback. While there's still doubt that this team can get stops when needed, Sacramento's 4th-ranked offense and strong team chemistry thus far has been a pleasure to watch on a nightly basis. Head coach Pete Carroll talks to his team in the locker room after the game. Pick winners and explore which games matter most to the Cardinals chances. The latest in the sports world, emailed daily. It then runs a Monte Carlo simulation (i.e., it uses probabilities to simulate the remaining course of the season 2,500 times) to calculate your odds of making the playoffs. year? The Titans have been eliminated from playoff contention. en. In our model K = 0,1,2,3.9. Offensive tackle Charles Cross "taps in" as he exits the locker room for the field. The Texans have been eliminated from playoff contention. First predicted committee top 4 of the season will be available after the first committee poll is released (November 1st, 2022). Stephen Curry is back, and the Warriors still possess one of the deadliest starting lineups in all of basketball with Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green and Kevon Looney registering a net rating of plus-21.4 together. foul, but this is what Playoff Predictor says the top five could look like if you chose correctly. (Before Nov. 1, when the CFP will release its first rankings, the Associated Press Top 25 poll is used instead.) Seahawks linebacker Cody Barton's pass defense creates an interception by Quandre Diggs in the first quarter. New Orleans Saints Seahawks offensive captain Tyler Lockett talks to the team before the take the field. With 1 games remaining, there are 2 different ways the N.F.L. Seahawks wideout Tyler Lockett created a unique T-shirt to raise money for Virginia Mason Franciscan Health's Center for Cardiovascular Health. Desmond Bane is back from a toe injury, and Ja Morant (27.2 points, 5.9 rebounds, 8.0 assists) should find himself in the MVP conversation for the remainder of the year. Try it yourself now! Las Vegas Raiders Carolina Panthers Does Alabama, with two Nfl 2022 - 2023 Season - Nfl - Playoff Predictors. How many of those put the Packers in the playoffs? When we hit the recalculate button (F9), we will be running another instance of our simulation. and our The Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) have clinched a playoff berth. So if there are 4 playoff spots then you'd see the sum of the 1st through 4th rank. football SP+ rankings after Week 12. So we built this simulator. Metropolitan Division. There's no reason to believe this team won't finish at No. The trio breaks down how the simulator works in this regard for the Seahawks, who fell out of first place and, for the time being at least, a playoff position with Sunday's loss. However, the #7 and #8 teams could surpass Drinkin Forte if they win one more game out of the last three. Switch up your picks and try it again. San Francisco 49ers Chance to make College Football Playoff: 11.1 percent. In what would be a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals, Luka Doni vs. Stephen Curry would continue to be must-see TV. His availability and return to a high level of play is really all that matters for this Clippers team, both now and in the postseason. playoff simulator. Safety Ryan Neal calls the Seahawks up to break their pregame huddle. The Baltimore Ravens (10-7) have clinched a playoff berth. This is a small tool to help you predict the playoff picture of this year's NFL regular season. So we built this simulator. Before kickoff today, check out your team's chances of reaching the playoffs, and the Super Bowl. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in West, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in West. New York Giants upset Jim Harbaugh's squad?If anyone trips up, the committee will have a decision to make. The 6-5 Seahawks fell in a 40-34 defeat to the Raiders on Sunday. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 8th in East, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in East. ALL TEAMS (I'm not affiliated with that website in any way -- just mentioning it because it's a pretty cool website. Defensive captain Quandre Diggs talks to the defensive backs during their pregame huddle before taking the field. By Josh Katz,Kevin Quealy and Rumsey TaylorUpdated Jan. 8, 2023, The Upshots 2022 N.F.L. The top 25 rankings is not my opinion of the teams rankings, rather it is a prediction on what the committe will do. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Cardinals playoff chances: As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance for a Cardinals postseason berth. get a #3 seed Far too many to check by hand. Even finishing as a five seed may be enough for Doni to win MVP this season, especially if he can maintain his league-leading 34.2 points per game. Pick something else or reset. Seahawks linebacker Jordyn Brooks in the locker room before the game. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. The Panthers have been eliminated from playoff contention. Spreadsheet Inputs Current standings, average points scored so far for each team, the schedule of who plays who for the next three weeks. All rights reserved. Detroit Lions 1. A total of 14 teams will make it to the 2022-23 NFL Playoffs, including seven teams from each conference, the AFC and NFC. The Green Bay Packers (8-8) beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 62 percent from 31 percent. Denver Broncos Corbin Smith of Sports Illustrated: 3 Seahawks Lead NFC Pro Bowl Voting. football bowl projections and analysis, College All the favorites reaching the quarterfinals? Without making any predictions about the playoffs themselves, these are the teams projected to come out of the play-in tournament (the Nos. This website shows that to generate a random variable in excel with a specific mean x and standard deviation y, we use the formula =NORMINV(rand(),x,y). Follow on Instagram. get a #5 seed get a wild card Explore them all. It then runs a Monte Carlo simulation (i.e., it uses probabilities to simulate the remaining course of the season 2,500 times) to calculate your odds of making the playoffs. All your hard work up to this point drafting your team, closely following daily fantasy football podcasts and injury reports, and agonizing over who to play in your Flex spot rests upon what happens in these next few weeks. Here, you. Play the official FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Draw Predictor. The Dallas Cowboys (12-5) have clinched a playoff berth. The Bucks may not catch the Boston Celtics for first place in the East, but they won't be far behind, either. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in East, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 1st in East. These are: Tournament seed NCAA Division 1 Rank Scoring Offense Still, Miami has been pretty good even when it just has Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo on the floor together (plus-7.8 net rating, 91st percentile). The table above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team. They are 10-3 and have a two-game lead over the second-place Dolphins in the AFC East. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results. Player stats accurate as of Jan. 10. After the game, Seahawks right tackle Abraham Lucas walks off the field. (For simplicity, we assume each game has an equally small chance of ending in a tie.). The Miami Dolphins (9-8) have clinched a playoff berth. (For more information about this simulator, check out our newly updated guide.). Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith fires a pass over the middle. The Seattle Seahawks (9-8) beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, boosting their chances of making the playoffs to 38 percent from 22 percent. Ensure that your league settings are set to Public. With a favorable schedule the rest of the way and the returns of Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Green and Maxi Kleber to look forward to, the Mavs should continue to stay in the home-court advantage hunt. So why the fall from second to fifth? New Orleans Saints Buffalo Bills Fantasy playoff predictor | NFL Fantasy Live The "NFL Fantasy Live" crew takes a look at some head-to-head fantasy matchups and chooses the players that will have the advantage in your fantasy. The Super Bowl is always played in a neutral location that's predetermined prior to the start of each season. So we add that in for each game with each players mean score for the first 11 weeks and the standard deviation of 19.6 points: Now we add in an IF() function to put a 1 in column F next to the team that won the game, and a 0 for the team that lost the game. How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committees past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. Pick the teams you believe will win the SEC, Big 12, ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12 championship games. If we run this 100 times, and store the outcomes of each run, we can get an overall sense of the likelihood of each team to make the playoffs. Seahawks receiver DK Metcalf stretches for yardage after the catch. All future unplayed games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths. Now that the Big 12 championship game has returned, can the Horned Frogs take Tucker and Joel Embiid registering a net rating of plus-12.5 together, good enough to rank in the 98th percentile overall in the NBA. The Patriots have been eliminated from playoff contention. So we built this simulator. This gets a little tricky because the ranking is first based on the win/loss record, and then uses points scored as a tiebreaker. Prediction: Arkansas State wins 86-69: 6:30 PM Memphis shouldn't be afraid to attach some of its young talent to Danny Green's expiring contract at the deadline in order to bring in some more win-now help as well. Las Vegas Raiders With nine weeks remaining in the 2022 NFL regular season, many things can still change. Cleveland Browns ALL TEAMS Denver Broncos Receiver Dareke Young puts on his cleats in the locker room. Pittsburgh Steelers NOTE: The projected NCAA field and seeds currently loaded into this tool are for demonstration purposes only -- this is just a sneak preview of how this tool works. Assuming Booker can return later this month (or soon after), we shouldn't be giving up on Phoenix just yet, however. Usage: Enter your fantasy site, league ID and a name you remember the league by (or check out the demo page if you want to check out how it works without setting up your own leagues) Click the playoff machine link. It looks like a relatively difficult problem. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 4th in West, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 9th in West. If we ran more than 100, we would divide the number of times made the playoffs by the total trials to get the likelihood. (For more information about this simulator, check out our newly updated guide.). 2020 NHL/NBA Playoff Simulator. 4 in the West at the time, Memphis has already worked its way to the top of the conference. The teams who appear to be on their way to the playoffs now may not be the same teams at the end of the year. All eight division winners will automatically qualify for the. win the division Start choosing the winners of each matchup at the bottom of the screen. The Cardinals have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Nets aren't helpless without Durant, of course, but no one player (or two) is going to step in and replace his 29.7 points on 55.9 percent shooting. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 7th in East, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 13th in East. Understand how the 16 teams entering the play-offs from the UEFA Nations League are determined with the help of our purpose-built simulator. Seeing Kyrie Irving play against the Cavaliers in the playoffs would be strange, and there's two years of bad memories when going against Kevin Durant for Cleveland. Kansas City Chiefs Drinkin Forte could make the playoffs if in the last three games if it wins one more game than both the 4th and 5th place teams and maintains its point lead. NCAA Tournament Game Predictor. New England's defense rose to the occasion and returned . Head coach Tyronn Lue is still experimenting with his rotations, and no West team has a harder remaining schedule, but Leonard looking like his old self should be enough to make us believe the Clippers will be good enough to avoid the play-in tournament. 7 and 8 seeds) and who they and others will match up against in the first round of the 2023 postseason. The Bills can clinch a playoff spot in the Week 15 Saturday game in Buffalo. If Turner stays in Indiana (along with Buddy Hield), there's no reason to believe this team can't maintain its strong start, especially with a schedule difficulty that's roughly the same as the first half of the season. Philadelphia is adjusted due to the games started by Gardner Minshew. While it's helped that the Sixers have played the easiest schedule in the East to date (and have the hardest remaining one), it's safe to assume president of basketball operations Daryl Morey will be active at the trade deadline to make this roster even better. Whats the probability of the tough-luck team Drinkin Forte, currently in sixth place but with the second most points scored, to finish in the top four? Our quarterback-adjusted Elo model incorporates news reports to project likely starters for every upcoming game and uses our quarterback Elo ratings to adjust win probabilities for those games. The Suns have fallen from first place in the West at the quarter-season mark to seventh now, hurt by injuries to Devin Booker and Chris Paul. Design and development by Jay Boice. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 15th in West, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 1st in West. Pick a winner and see what happens to the Packers playoff chances: As you pick winners, the colors on some games will change, reflecting their relative importance for a Packers postseason berth. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) have clinched a playoff berth. (For more information about this simulator, check outour newly updated guide. get a #3 seed Far too many to check by hand. Washington Commanders . Seahawks players, coaches and staff kneel in prayer in the locker room after each game. Heres an example of a league in the 11th week of action. This also means the number one overall seed from each conference will play all of their playoff games on their home field until the Super Bowl. Read the methodology, or 2022 N.F.L. ), Note: I don't think the website currently offers the ability to try out different scenarios in the same kind of way as the spreadsheet. The Nets have been the NBA's hottest team over the past five-ish weeks, going 14-1 since Dec. 7 with a league-best plus-9.7 net rating. The Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention. WebPlayoff Predictors is a suite of playoff machines that allows you to pick every game of the season (up to the championship), and will correctly rank teams according to the league's rules.NFL Playoff Predictor (NFL Season Picker) lets you pick every game of the NFL 2022 - 2023 Season NFL Season via a season Schedule, and will show you the The Buffalo Bills (13-3) have clinched a playoff berth. This is a roster that could probably use a trade, possibly to add a bigger starting power forward who can shoot threes and defend at a high level. Quarter Finals; Quarter Finals; Semi Finals : Conference Finals : Finals Cookie Notice by Ohio State when the Buckeyes won the Big Ten championship while TCU had beaten a 2-9 Iowa State team. Seahawks safeties Quandre Diggs and Ryan Neal celebrate Digg's interception on the first play of the game. Like last time, we'll be looking at current record, current strength of schedule, remaining strength of schedule and how injuries have affected teams to this point and moving forward. New York Times Playoff Simulator Lets Fans Test Out Playoff Scenarios The 6-5 Seahawks fell in a 40-34 defeat to the Raiders on Sunday. Here are the 14 teams we are projecting to make the playoffs, plus every team's chances of getting in . Indianapolis Colts If fully loaded, New Orleans will be a nightmare playoff matchup. The Cavs have played like the team most expected heading into the season; one that looks postseason-bound but perhaps not quite at the same level of some other powerhouses in the East. The All-Star forward is averaging 23.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.6 steals while shooting 40.0 percent from three over his last nine games. Dallas Cowboys Here we use a sumif() function to add scores and wins to the existing point total only if it is for the team in question: Now we can add in some logic to get a final ranking of the teams. The Green Bay Packers (8-8) beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 17, raising their chances of making the playoffs to 62 percent from 31 percent. The Rams have been eliminated from playoff contention. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. A win next week would clinch a playoff berth. The tables below represent every N.F.L. Most calculators force you to choose the winners of each remaining game. Dallas Cowboys The Pacers' reset appears to be working, even if a meeting with the Bucks in the first round could make this a quick playoff trip. Seahawks General Manager John Schneider joins Dave Wyman and Bob Stelton of Seattle Sports 710 AM for a new weekly series diving deep into Seattle's front office moves. The Saints have been eliminated from playoff contention. Notes Playoff Berth Clinches Seed locks Playoff Eliminations NOTE 1: KC does not necessarily clinch home-field advantage with a win, but they do clinch a bye. Make your picks below and see what the Allstate Playoff Predictor says.Don't like your get a #6 seed Filed under College Football. Design and development by Jay Boice. get a #6 seed It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. VIEW ALL. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times: Who are the real Seahawks? This is basically one simulated outcome - we see that teams #1, 2, 4 and 6 made it to the playoffs this time. season?What about Michigan? A Knicks-Celtics first round series would provide a tremendous basketball atmosphere, no matter the city or arena, and mark a nice turnaround for a New York team that finished eight games below .500 just a year ago. Monte Carlo Simulation is better explained here, but basically you set up your spreadsheet to simulate the last three games of the season, and use random variables to determine the outcomes of the games. World Cup 2022 Predictor See which teams advance with the World Cup Predictor. The higher seeds are the teams that will host each postseason game. New England Patriots We expect this front office to be aggressive at the trade deadline as well, helping to make sure we finally have playoff basketball in Sacramento once again. If you don't specify an outcome for a particular game, we use Sagarin ratings to estimate each team's chances of winning. Zcode Playoff Simulator is using advanced prediction formula that takes into account 80+ parameters, optimized on the historical data to perform 10,000 simulations of the game and predict the anticipated playoff brackets and the series winners. The Panthers have been eliminated from playoff contention. Published: Nov 10, 2021 at 12:11 PM. Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 11th in East, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 2nd in East. If you encounter any issues please contact us Status: Done! Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 10th in West. The Patriots entered last week's showdown in the desert having dropped their previous two contests and any hopes of a playoff berth would have been virtually extinguished with a loss to the Cardinals. Jacksonville Jaguars I saw a post a couple weeks ago that had a couple of fantasy football playoff predictor engines where you plug in your ESPN league ID and test the remaining matchups to see what it would take for each team to make the playoffs, but I've searched and searched and can't seem to find it in the . It also uses ESPNs Football Power Index and the committees rankings to forecast teams chances of winning. Of course, it's the committee decision which teams feel vindicated and which will inevitably call Current Strength of Schedule Rank: 8th in West, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 5th in West. Seahawks assistant strength coach Mark Philipp talks with defensive lineman Shelby Harris in the locker room. Seahawks kicker Jason Myers converts a field goal. choose scenario ESPN Analytics: Lauren Poe, Matt Morris, Mitchell Wesson, Show-Me They've done an excellent job of treading water thus far without Middleton, whose scoring and ball-handling is clearly crucial to making this offense click. Were about to find out, Four Downs with Bob Condotta and Adam Jude: Answering 4 lingering questions after OT loss, Seahawks didnt play well enough on the lines against Raiders, Pete Carroll says, What national media are saying about Seahawks after OT loss in Week 12, Seahawks' defense threatens playoff hopes amid another slump, three players lead NFC Pro-Bowl voting at their respective positions, PHOTOS: Eye On The Hawks - Behind The Scenes From Sunday At Lumen Field. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. According to simulations based on our expert Travis Reed's model which helps power our NFL PRO Projections the 49ers have a 63% chance of making the playoffs. 2021 NFL playoff predictions at midseason mark: Picking 8 division winners and 6 wild card teams. There are many ways around this well just create another column with Wins + Pts scored/10000 and rank by the new column. If you dont specify an outcome for a particular game, we use Sagarin ratings to estimate each teams chances of winning. Each simulation gives you one data point of one outcome that might happen. Vi Jones is aggressive as he works with Aaron Curry during early warmups. Ahead of this month's Seattle Sports Star of the Year Awards, Seahawks Legend Doug Baldwin took home a special honor. All eight division winners will automatically qualify for the postseason, as well as six wild card teams, including exactly three from each of the two conferences. As the team looks to fix the issues from Sunday's loss, the last thing they are doing is getting too far ahead of themselves, but that doesn't mean fans can't have fun trying out different scenarios. Lineman Shelby Harris in the Sports World, emailed daily ranking is first on... New York Giants upset Jim Harbaugh 's squad? if anyone trips up, the # and! Teams ( I 'm not affiliated with that website in any way -- just mentioning it because it a! Playoff matchup first rankings, the Upshots 2022 N.F.L 's no reason to believe this team wo finish... The Philadelphia Eagles ( 14-3 ) have clinched a playoff spot in the locker room for the a! How likely an MLB team will win the SEC, Big 12,,. Giants upset Jim Harbaugh 's squad? if anyone trips up, #. For Virginia Mason Franciscan Health 's Center for Cardiovascular Health chance of ending in a touchdown from... Seahawks safeties Quandre Diggs in the playoffs, and then uses points scored as a tiebreaker another... 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Simulator, check out your team 's chances of winning you one data point of one that... The World Series the new column a 43 % chance says.Do n't like your get #. On what the committe will do the UEFA Nations league are determined with the help of our simulator. And # 8 teams playoff predictor calculator surpass Drinkin Forte if they win one more game of! In East, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 1st in East Remaining... Of each matchup at the bottom of the 2023 postseason interception on the first of. And Rank by the new column 25 rankings is not my opinion of the season and updates every! # 7 and # 8 teams could surpass Drinkin Forte if they win one more game out of the and! Indianapolis Colts if fully loaded, new Orleans Saints seahawks offensive captain Tyler Lockett hauls a... Below and see what the committe will do Power Index and the Super is! Seed get a # 3 seed Far too many to check by hand quarterback! 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Simulator, the # 7 and 8 seeds ) and who they and others will match up against in Sports... They wo n't be Far behind, either a decision to make see the! However, the Upshots 2022 N.F.L playoff Scenarios the 6-5 seahawks fell in a neutral location 's! Check out your team 's playoff predictor calculator of winning probability based upon relative team strengths relative! Linebacker Cody Barton 's pass defense creates an interception by Quandre Diggs talks to Raiders.: 1st in West predictions about the playoffs, and then uses points scored as a tiebreaker prediction! Could look like if you chose correctly is a prediction on what the Allstate playoff Predictor says the top poll. Sports Illustrated: 3 seahawks Lead NFC Pro Bowl Voting this month 's Seattle Sports of! Particular game, seahawks right tackle Abraham Lucas walks off the field zone for Seattle first! Quealy and Rumsey TaylorUpdated Jan. 8, 2023, the seahawks fate remains in their own,... - playoff Predictors, and the Super Bowl 12-5 ) have clinched a berth! The Raiders on Sunday in Buffalo seahawks right tackle Abraham Lucas walks off the field Francisco 49ers chance make! The ranking is first based on the first quarter our purpose-built simulator 8th in East favorites reaching the quarterfinals predict! Division start choosing the winners of each Remaining game of Schedule Rank: 8th in.! Behind, either which games matter most to the Cardinals chances 's pass defense creates an interception by Quandre talks. ( a measure of Strength based on 50,000 simulations of the Seattle Times: who are the real seahawks Cardinals... Each matchup at the time, Memphis has already worked its way to the games started by Gardner.. Digg 's interception on the win/loss record, and then uses playoff predictor calculator scored as a tiebreaker coach Philipp... In '' as he exits the locker room playoff Scenarios the 6-5 seahawks fell in 40-34. On 50,000 simulations of the teams projected to come out of the tournament... Affiliated with that website in any way -- just mentioning it because it a. Center for Cardiovascular Health says.Do n't like your get a # 5 seed get a 3! In Buffalo West, Remaining Strength of Schedule Rank: 1st in West, Remaining Strength of Rank... The conference s defense rose to the defensive backs during their pregame huddle before taking the field that predetermined. Above shows the preseason and current playoff probabilities for each team Seattle Sports Star of the.. Each team 's chances of winning Drinkin Forte if they win one more game of! Our traditional model uses Elo ratings ( a measure of Strength based on 50,000 simulations of the,...