If you think its a great investment, go ahead and buy some / a lot we are not stopping you. It is too corrupt and manipulative a system, which will find no takers once people are exposed to the Bitcoin world, where there is no ambiguity in money supply with no bubbles and subsequent blowing up of the currency and economy. I like the way he analyzes investments. Therefor, John will go on believing strangers on YouTube over me so I will be there to pick up the pieces when the house of cards crumbles. Bitcoin isnt that though. Most of the 1000s of cryptos (and maybe even bitcoin) will fail, but the few that remain will change the world. This is really useful for me to hone my thinking about the topic. Aside from what it can do, cryptocurrency guarantees an economy with very different fundamentals than government-issued currency because 1) its supply is finite and 2) no central authority controls distribution of new supply. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. No one knows what the stable value of bitcoin will end up, and betting in either direction just seems like a fools errand. I dont feel like making a well-constructed arguments because Im tired and this may make me look like a fool but frankly, I dont care. Started by myrrh. Whether you should get out is a difficult question. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. January 3, 2018, 7:36 am. Mr. Mustache. Individuals getting rich off speculation doesnt mean its not speculation. Nixon just took away the last vestiges of the gold standard. To keep things non-promotional, please use a real name or nickname(not Blogger @ My Blog Name). I just recently read that someone in metro Vancouver Canada liquidated $100,000 worth of their retirement savings and used that money to purchase servers for bitcoin mining. The blockchain is only 1 part of Bitcoin. Im going to try putting some of my thoughts together in a post at the bottom. An investment then would not be considered wasteful now. Joey Graziano This black one here is only $1,000,000,000,000,000. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. You can have a blockchain that uses (even if you include all the network stuff it passes through) just a few KW and moves more data then Bitcoin. They grew pretty flowers that we enjoy looking at. You could recreate your AAPL stocks again if you want and still keep the rest in GBTC? Mr. Money Mustache: Bitcoin isn't a currency it's like buying Beanie Babies The popular blogger, who retired debt-free at 30, says bitcoin's value is "imaginary." The popular blogger, who. Mr. Money Mustache is the website and pseudonym of 48-year-old Canadian-born blogger Peter Adeney. You keep talking about transactions needed for it to be a currency but fail to mention in your article that Lightning Network is in the works to address this very problem. Thats cool. January 3, 2018, 7:59 am. FriendlyPoster You could always follow the Long Island Iced Tea model: 1. ;). Take the decentralization, the trustlessness, the miners or the currency out and you throw the immutability out. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? Even if you assume block chain currency will replace all gold, which I do agree with you is a bit of a pipe dream, how do you know which one? In short this is nothing more than trust. I do believe blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested in uses beyond money grabs. I was having coffee with a friend just 2 weeks ago and he mentioned a friend of his who was investing in Bitcoin and asked what I thought. January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. Important: Having a guideline as to when you have enough money to consider yourself financially independent (FI). So if you are buying and holding, say, Google stock, you are just speculating. Think about how tomorrows generation will use far a more advanced blockchain tech to interact with far more advanced internet and general tech to create things that we cant even conceive of yet, let alone why they would have value. They seem less wise and more credentialed. Will it help me achieve my financial dreams quicker? . as long as people in their consciousness believe it is a store of value it is. From arranging hits to buying drugs to political corruption. I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. I understand this is an MMM forum but i mean come on.. you have to recognize that managed risk is a part of building wealth. Ah yes silly me :). The short answer is they can do nothing about it! Yeah, Ive discussed the mining with my friend from NVidia. We end up in Utopia? You clearly have a contrarian opinion here. This is exactly what happened in the 1970s: The nominal price of stocks remained roughly the same while their effective purchasing power was cut more than in half, eventually prices will come back up. Bitcoin and other Cryptos are attractive for that reason and that why people spread this misinformation about it to sway people from backing it. However, since more USD would automagically exist, USD becomes less valuable (this is inflation its like stealing a little bit of USD from anyone with cash positions). I was tempted by the neat aspect of being involved in this thing I knew would have some kind of future value blockchain. While stocks are likely a bit frothy, P/E ratios arent near the peaks they were circa 2000s: And important thing to note here is that underneath (almost all) stocks are actual engines of growth with hundreds or thousands of humans working hard, churning out profits, earnings, and dividends. And nothing that can go on forever, does. In order for bitcoin to be a real currency, Adeney claims, it must be three things: easy and frictionless for trading between people, widely accepted as a legal tender for all debts (both public. I am as much a Mustachian as you all are, except for this one article that I simply cannot digest frankly! January 2, 2018, 5:44 pm. Thats fairly over the top. Either one will get your CAPE ratio back into whack. Stay on the sidelines. Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! I agree totally. I for one am lucky enough to participate in the birthing of an alternative financial paradigm so that people have choices. So no surprise thats the first one, especially considering you need it to make the system work at all. January 2, 2018, 6:30 pm. I think that the short history of bitcoin teaches us just how challenging prediction can be in these technologies. Any efficiency brought to commerce through blockchain technology are very likely to show up as increased dividends from index funds. MMM, Internet has pretty much destroyed every industry it has pitted against. Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. If I add your state debt and unfunded liabilities, US is BANKRUPT! January 3, 2018, 8:02 am. Doh! Im thrilled to see the godfather speak on this. January 2, 2018, 5:54 pm, I considered investing in Bitcoin back in the summer, but decided to spend my time doing other Mustachian things such as enjoying the outdoors and spending quality time with family and friends. There is a mad rush in places like Korea to move all money to Bitcoins, and their government does not even know what to do about it. TO_Ont What usually happens when this occurs? You are probably right that it has some more room to grow, but speculating on the perfect exit point is no more an investment strategy than a trip to Vegas is. Personally, I think this article shows that Mr Adeney has had his blog hijacked by the Anti-satoshi ;). All this bullshit about backed by faith and credit of my country goes out of the window when currencies die someday. Even some cryptocurrencies that currently exist. Some make the argument that blockchain on its own has some merits that may be so. There are many reasonable prices for these goods that are non-speculative in nature. The web. Or the cars people use to haul that stuff then. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. 1 Replies 290 Views February 10, 2023, 05:55:08 AM . I believe the current Cryptocurrency investment mania is a huge waste of human energy, and our rate of waste has been growing exponentially. Funny, I was recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking up the virtues of Bitcoin. I agree with you, Chris. An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? i could talk for hours on the subject but Bitcoin is here to stay as it has already become central to a growing number of economies. Anyone whos ever had to wire money between banks will appreciate the quick transaction times and low (or zero) fees of these coins. Retweet. Absolutely! But thats just the software side (Blockchain). A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent operation designed to steal peoples money. Allow it time to grow to say 10 trillion, and then let us debate on stability. Get listed and sell some shares. So Im going with no. These ideas are most problematic: MMM Says: Trust world governments to control fiat currencies. Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. False analogies. So many things about Bitcoin and altcoins are patently ridiculous once you take a step back from the tulip mania and look at what is really happening. No? As the money supply increases, purchasing power is concentrated with the money creators at the expense of others holding the currency. It just means that some price levels are reasonable, and some are not. Bitcoin has very little usage. As for spending your Bitcoin, I digress. at best. January 2, 2018, 9:45 pm. Even in a police state like China their actions have failed! Poor people have never initiated a tax loophole. Not everyone agrees, but it cannot, unlike cryptos, be regarded as stupid. You invested in GBTC? No. Worth at least an extra couple bitcoins there. Do you really see that happening? If not, you may want to think about selling. When we talk about Bitcoin, or Ethereum or any other digital coin, for that matter, neither ponzi nor pyramid are perfectly accurate descriptions for how these systems actually work., The cryptocoins represent a new kind of scam, a Nakamoto Scheme: https://prestonbyrne.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin_ponzi/. Since when was that a down year? They dont tend to go longer than that. https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, Matt Stephenson Ill go with Ponzi Scheme. You gotta have it. That is why our civilization used that rather than perishables or iron. Im a regular reader and respect your opinion. Something only has value if ppl place a value on it. Your question was answered. Why should humanity be slaves to Banks and a few elites who control money supply? Im not sure why the author is so angry at people who speculate. I also invested in a bitcoin two years ago, and paid off all my debt with it. Sooner or later, the fundamentals of the underlying business should and will reflect in the stock price. The population has lost trust in the institutions of governance with good reason. Or when I have to go to the grocery store to buy milk and theres the sign that says NO POWER, CASH ONLY and my toddler is crying for milk, Im going to pay them in cash. I agree Jay. But thats just the start. In a world of human trust, putting the wisest and most respected people in a position of Adult Supervision is a useful tactic. An Aside: Why should we listen to you, Mustache? I enjoyed the cancer pill analogy, probably the best I have heard of yet. Some of my conversations with him inspired the research in this article. Thank you Jane, I have been waiting for someone to point this out! If they talk about investing in BTC or any crypto CURRENCY, I say, well, I think Ill invest in Mexican Pesos. 2) lots of other things are used as a store of value (paintings, etc) Even if you win some money through dumb luck, you have lost some time and life energy, which means you have lost. But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. Also appreciate fungibility. January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. Perhaps its the utter lack of any regulation that baffles me, because blockchain I do kinda get, which is why I did put some money into IBM (yes, very un-Mustachian) after reading about their auto-encryption developments and its applicability in protecting personal info and consumer data. I dislike all this vitriol given to speculators when they are fully valuable members of an economic system. Some people might get crazy rich, but some might just go broke because of Bitcoin. LennStar Peopleve been lusting after gold (god knows why) for millennia because it clearly arouses something inside them. Large hydroelectric dams are literally known in the power world for how amazingly good they are at storage. But, is a stock index worth a CAPE ratio of near 30, meaning it would take 30 years to earn back your initial investment, not counting any loss from inflation? More than triple the speed of Visa/MC. If a good provides value to just one person without hurting anyone else, then it provides value to society. Speculation is essential to set a market price for anything. Speculation is great. Research further. We plan to spice up our investments then, we will have $90K/yr extra to invest and wont mind taking maybe 10% of that and play/gamble with it :-). Thats crazy. Episode 496: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - Part 1 by Mr. Money Mustache. Holding gold is not an investment in this case, it is a hedge. After all, some total stranger selling Snake Oil on YouTube has a vested interest in the well-being of John Doe and his familys financial stability. Miners are competing for the job by offering profit sharing and other services. The shovel sellers are the real winners here. Long story short bitcoin provides value. There are literally centuries worth of data on the gold price and it is remarkably stable against all other commodities (and paper assets) over long stretches of time because of math and physics. If people are creating an bubble out of it, people is stupid, not bitcoin. Update, my fingernails are up to $160,000 now. Most of the arguments pro-Bitcoin are made by those who have bought into it; of course there is some motivation for arguing that others join them to drive up the price, which is entirely speculative. But how do you know youre investing in Amazon, and not Pets.com? If you're like most Americans, you're a few . Last May, when I announced I had inked a deal with Harriman House to publish my new book, Pathfinders, I invited those of you who had embraced The Simple Path to Wealth to share your stories. http://www.newsbtc.com/2016/06/01/andreas-antonopoulos-explains-blockchain-nothing-without-bitcoin/, Mr. Frugal Toque It is a good. Networking. MentalArson Even the USD was a deflationary currency till the 60s after which Nixon got it out of the gold standard. So, I harvest other peoples speculation and I dont lose anything, as I have already harvested more than what I put in. The value of bitcoin is very far removed from any sensible fundamental valuation, and the thing driving up the price seems to be a common sense that it will be worth more in the future. Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. Spend $40,000 a year x 25 = $1,000,000 to be FI/spend 4% of $1,000,000 = $40,000 to spend each year. While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. I have shown from above that their is value in digital currencies. One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. Ive yet to find anyone who has. Anyway, to your other point, the main beneficiaries of this bubble are the exchanges. Why you ask? Do you practice illegal tax evasion as your primary wealth strategy? This MMM article seems almost contradictory to what has become an investment philosophy that reciprocates with many people. And pray blurt out as to why it is bad equivocation? In this way, dollars are the ultimate speculation. Read through this article for the contrarian view of things: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, Mr. Money Mustache Maybe then it will go away. So you did. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. Crypto is here to stay albeit probably not at insane prices. It once creates large rainbow tables on Disk. Fired & Free Blog readers. :), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/941500121564332032, farmecologist January 2, 2018, 7:25 pm. An example for this would be Ripple (like you mentioned above) which is working closely with banks to make international transactions better. Might want to polish that up before going public again. Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. Now lets get back to your kick-ass money savvy engineering experiments :-), Oh, dont feel too bad. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. Is the logical conclusion to short a mania or stay on the sidelines? Heres a great description of the whole scene by Chain CEO Adam Ludwin. I didnt buy because I didnt know enough about the technology and in my opinion currency arbitrage takes too much monitoring for my liking. This is the best post on this entire comment thread. Are you willing to bet half a million dollars that this bubble hasnt peaked? The happiness of society is made of the happiness of individuals and nothing else. The alternative is front-loading energy consumption in maintaining a currency with predictable fundamentals on top of which society can run. Although it is difficult to put a price tag on the speculation and mania portion of BTCs price, as sentiment strengthens in regards to Bitcoins future functionality prospects the price should continue to increase. Im just curious what your motivations are for all your comments. Missing the forest for the trees kind of thing. Lastly, once KYC and AML is figured out, I have a hard time understanding why people would even want to use paper fiat instead of a digital fiat. There valuation of pretty much everything but Bitcoin and Ethereum is unjustifiable. You could grow more bulbs indefinitely. January 4, 2018, 7:36 am. January 3, 2018, 4:34 am, Dont plan on investing in cryptocurrency. Bitcoin has its flaws and needs to improve as you mentioned: Sure the BTC reward goes down, but the USD/BTC price keeps rising offsetting the lower reward for the time being. As the market cap of cryptocurrencies grow, the volatility as a percent will decrease. Kevin S Coleman There you go. Consensus over its value. Anytime someone says they are investing in Bitcoin, I have to laugh. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? This is no different from rich wall street people and government controlling fiat currency.. And the digital assets which are currently little more than digital currencies no one uses will be required to process and write data to the public blockchains. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache If they had money in gold they could have mitigated some of the affects of the politicians and bureaucrats in those countries (and the IMF). Great text. Because of this, newspapers start reporting on prices daily, triggering so many tales of instant riches that you notice even your barber and your massage therapist are offering tips on how to invest in this new asset class. With BTC, how would a nation function and have institutions that protect its people? And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. I cant help but feel that you already had a conclusion in mind before you started looking into cryptocurrencies. Then you have to pay a ton of interest to borrow it, and be lucky with the timing. Bitcoins are scarce, your fingernails are not. You should have just invested in winning lottery tickets instead of bitcoin, they have had a much much higher rate of return. Being involved in this way, dollars are the exchanges talking up the of. And credit of my thoughts together in a bitcoin two years ago, and not Pets.com political.. Show up as increased dividends from index funds and I dont lose anything as... Inside them re a few elites who control money supply mr money mustache bitcoin, purchasing power is concentrated with the timing see... 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To your other point, the volatility as a percent will decrease whole scene Chain!
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